Tropical Storm Ida is a powerful storm that has been moving across the Atlantic Ocean. It is expected to make landfall on the Gulf Coast of Florida as a Category 1 hurricane.
Updates on Extreme Weather and Climate
Updated on August 27, 2023
7:40 a.m. ET, August 27, 2023
7:40 a.m. ET, August 27, 2023
Last August, Hurricane Laura wreaked havoc on an apartment complex in Lake Charles, Louisiana. On Sunday, Tropical Storm Ida may make landfall in Louisiana as a hurricane. Credit… The New York Times’ William Widmer
People in the path of Tropical Storm Ida, a fast-moving storm in the Gulf of Mexico, have had significantly less time to prepare for landfall. Hurricane forecasts are typically issued five days in advance once a storm has formed, but people in the path of Tropical Storm Ida have had significantly less time to prepare for landfall.
Ida made landfall in the Cayman Islands early Friday, less than 12 hours after developing, and is expected to hit Louisiana as a Category 2 hurricane on Sunday, only three days after forecasters concluded that a meteorological disturbance over the southern Caribbean had turned into a tropical depression. The National Hurricane Center’s designation activates the forecast tools for tropical storms and hurricanes.
Forecasters had been keeping an eye on the storm for many days, but models projected it would go west, toward Mexico or the Texas coast. The storm formed further north than anticipated, resulting in an expedited timeframe and increased danger for the northern Gulf Coast.
Ida became a tropical storm when its surface winds reached 39 miles per hour, and as it travels northwestward across the Gulf of Mexico, it is likely to become a hurricane. Further intensification will be aided by a warm upper ocean and minimal vertical wind shear, which enables the storm to stay upright.
Hurricane watches were issued for much of the Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines late Thursday night, as well as a tropical storm watch for the entire Alabama coast.
“When it reaches the northern Gulf Coast, Ida may be approaching major hurricane strength,” the National Hurricane Center stated in a prediction update.
The term “potential tropical cyclone” was used by the center in 2017 to describe systems that were not yet tropical depressions but were expected to develop rapidly enough to pose a danger to land within 48 hours. Ida, which arrived in the Cayman Islands early Friday and was heading for western Cuba, did not take this route.
Ida then embarks on a journey to Louisiana.
Last year, Cristobal in June, Laura and Marco in August, Sally and Beta in September, and Delta and Zeta in October wreaked havoc on the state. Laura, a Category 4 hurricane that was one of the most destructive hurricanes to ever strike the state, and Delta, which caused significant floods, caused the greatest damage.
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Ida, the ninth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, as seen from space. Credit…NOAA
The National Hurricane Center said Tropical Storm Ida passed over the Cayman Islands on Thursday and may hit the northern Gulf Coast of the United States as a major hurricane over the weekend, just days after developing as the Atlantic hurricane season’s ninth named storm.
The storm’s core was moving over the Cayman Islands as of 5 a.m. Eastern time. It was 50 miles north northwest of Grand Cayman, heading northwest at 12 miles per hour, with maximum sustained winds of 45 miles per hour, according to the center.
The storm may bring life-threatening flash floods, mudslides, and rip currents, according to forecasters. The Cayman Islands and portions of Cuba may get eight to 12 inches of rain, with isolated totals of up to 20 inches, according to the center. Jamaica was predicted to get six to ten inches of rain, with isolated totals of up to 15 inches.
The Cayman Islands were under a tropical storm warning. A hurricane warning was also issued for Cuba ahead of the storm’s anticipated arrival on the Gulf Coast of the United States on Friday.
Louisiana Governor John Bel Edwards issued a state of emergency on Thursday night in anticipation for the hurricane.
“While it is my hope and prayer that this storm will not cause damage to our state, we should be prepared to bear the brunt of the terrible weather,” Mr. Edwards wrote on Twitter.
Because of the probable effects and continued development of Tropical Storm #Ida, I have proclaimed a state of emergency. This storm is expected to reach the Gulf Coast on Sunday at or near major hurricane strength, according to the @NHC Atlantic. #lagov #lawx https://t.co/Dq6nBSh50n
August 26, 2023 — John Bel Edwards (@LouisianaGov)
A hurricane warning was issued for the Gulf Coast from Cameron, La., to the Mississippi-Alabama line. In addition to Lake Pontchartrain, the metropolitan New Orleans region was under a hurricane warning. By Friday morning, at least one town in Southern Mississippi would be under mandatory evacuation orders.
According to the center’s tracking model, the storm’s eye may hit Louisiana as a hurricane by Sunday, with maximum winds of 110 mph and gusts of up to 130 mph.
For meteorologists, it’s been a whirlwind few weeks as they saw three named storms develop in rapid succession in the Atlantic, bringing severe weather, floods, and destructive winds to various areas of the US and the Caribbean. The first was Tropical Storm Fred, which made landfall in the Florida Panhandle on August 16. Fred produced torrential rainfall and triggered numerous tornadoes as it traveled through the Southeast. In the aftermath of the storm, flash floods swept away houses in Western North Carolina, killing at least five people.
Grace developed in the eastern Caribbean on August 14, the same day that Haiti’s western peninsula was devastated by a 7.2 magnitude earthquake. As the nation battled to rescue those buried under debris, the storm proceeded west, dropping at least 10 inches of rain. Grace then hit the Yucatán Peninsula again, bringing additional severe rain, power outages, and hundreds of evacuations. Another landfall, this time on Mexico’s mainland’s eastern coast, killed at least eight people.
How to Understand Hurricane Season Terminology
Christina Caron and Karen Zraick The weather is being reported on.
How to Understand Hurricane Season Terminology
Christina Caron and Karen Zraick The weather is being reported on.
The New York Times’ Emily Kask
What exactly is “landfall”? And what exactly are you up against while you’re in the midst of a storm?
During hurricane season, news coverage and predictions may be riddled with jargon. Let’s take a closer look at what they imply.
How to Understand Hurricane Season Terminology
Christina Caron and Karen Zraick The weather is being reported on.
Hurricanes, typhoons, and cyclones may be discussed. So, what’s the difference between the two? Location.
In the North Atlantic and Northeast Pacific, “hurricane” is often used; in the Northwest Pacific, “typhoon,” and in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean, “cyclone” is commonly used.
From June 1 to November 30, the Atlantic season, when hurricanes and tropical storms are most likely to strike the United States, begins.
How to Understand Hurricane Season Terminology
Christina Caron and Karen Zraick The weather is being reported on.
NOAA
All of these storms have one thing in common: They’re circular low-pressure structures that develop over warm water. When winds reach 39 miles per hour, a system is classified as a tropical storm. It’s a hurricane with winds of 74 miles per hour.
How to Understand Hurricane Season Terminology
Christina Caron and Karen Zraick The weather is being reported on.
Forecasters often refer to the eye, the eyewall, and the wall cloud as components of the storm:
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The circular region of comparatively low winds, even bright sun, in the heart of a storm is known as the eye. Within the eye, the situation may seem to be tranquil.
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The eyewall, a ring of cumulonimbus clouds also known as a wall cloud, is wrapped around it. It contains a hurricane’s greatest winds.
How to Understand Hurricane Season Terminology
Christina Caron and Karen Zraick The weather is being reported on.
The New York Times’ Tamir Kalifa
A hurricane does not make landfall when its outer edge hits land, which may seem paradoxical.
Landfall, on the other hand, occurs when the eye crosses the coastline.
18 August 2023
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And Henri developed as a tropical storm near the United States’ East Coast on August 16. It developed into a Category 1 hurricane before weakening and made landfall in Rhode Island, avoiding the brunt of the storm’s effects. It battered the Northeast with strong winds and heavy rain, knocking out power to almost 140,000 homes from New Jersey to Maine. Some Connecticut towns were evacuated, and New York City’s rainfall records were broken.
Hurricanes and climate change are becoming more intertwined. Increased hurricanes and a greater incidence of the most severe storms may be expected as the world warms, but the total number of storms may decrease as factors such as stronger wind shear prevent lesser storms from developing.
Hurricanes are getting wetter as a result of increased water vapor in the sky; experts have indicated that hurricanes like Hurricane Harvey in 2017 generated much more rain than they would have without human-caused climate change. In addition, increasing sea levels are leading to increased storm surge, which is the most dangerous component of tropical storms.
A key UN climate study published in August warned that countries have waited so long to reduce their fossil-fuel emissions that they would be unable to prevent global warming from worsening over the next 30 years, resulting in more frequent life-threatening heat waves and catastrophic droughts. The study claims that tropical cyclones have grown more severe over the last 40 years, a change that cannot be explained only by natural variability.
On May 23, Ana became the season’s first named storm, marking the eighth year in a row that a named storm has formed in the Atlantic before the season’s official start on June 1.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted in May that there will be 13 to 20 named storms in the Atlantic this year, with six to ten of them becoming hurricanes, and three to five major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher. They continued to warn in early August, in a midseason update to the prediction, that this year’s hurricane season would be above normal, implying a busy finish to the season.
According to Matthew Rosencrans of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, a revised prediction indicated that by the conclusion of the season on Nov. 30, there will be 15 to 21 named storms, including seven to ten hurricanes. Ida is the ninth named storm to hit the United States in 2023.
Last year, 30 named storms, including six significant hurricanes, forced meteorologists to use Greek letters for the second time after exhausting the alphabet.
It was the most storms ever recorded, exceeding the previous high of 28 in 2005, and featured the second-highest number of hurricanes ever recorded.
Derrick Bryson Taylor and Neil Vigdor provided reporting.
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This week, smoke from the Caldor fire engulfed Lake Tahoe on the California-Nevada border. Credit… The New York Times’ Max Whittaker
Crews fighting blazes throughout Northern California prepared for a hazardous mix of hot, dry, and windy weather over the weekend as the Caldor Fire burned roughly a dozen miles south of Lake Tahoe on Friday.
On Thursday, firefighters made some headway battling the Caldor, but fresh evacuation orders were issued for communities north and south of Highway 50, one of the major roads linking Lake Tahoe and Sacramento. Parts of the adjacent Tahoe Basin were also under evacuation orders.
Since it began more than 70 miles southwest of the lake on Aug. 14, the Caldor fire has burnt across an area bigger than Denver, causing serious worry among state authorities. As hazardous smoke levels soared beyond the highest thresholds on air quality standards this week, residents began to flee the Lake Tahoe region. Visitors should “postpone any urgent travel plans to the region” until the fire is under control, according to the Lake Tahoe Visitors Authority.
According to Cal Fire, the state’s firefighting organization, the Caldor was just 12% controlled as of Thursday night, despite the efforts of almost 3,000 firefighters. Cal Fire officer Cody Bogan said at a press conference on Thursday that wildfire smoke has decreased visibility and made it impossible for firefighting aircraft to fly.
Another Cal Fire officer, Dusty Martin, said the wildfire was being tackled “at full speed” by fire personnel, public utilities, and other agencies.
“There’s still a lot of red on this map, which indicates we’re still working around the clock to get that area contained,” he added.
The outlook for the next several days in many areas where California flames are burning predicts for gusty winds, scorching temperatures, and low humidity. From Friday morning until at least Saturday morning, a so-called red flag warning for fire risk will be in place throughout Northern California.
The Caldor isn’t the only fire that has firefighters working overtime. The Dixie Fire, which started in Northern California last month and has burnt over 750,000 acres — an area roughly the size of Rhode Island — is just 45 percent controlled. The Monument fire, farther west, has burned over 157,000 acres since late July and is barely 20% controlled.
In only nine days, the French fire in Southern California has burnt over more than 22,000 acres north of Los Angeles. On Thursday, further evacuation orders and warnings were issued in the region, bringing the total controlled to 19 percent.
And, throughout this disaster-plagued summer, more flames keep popping up.
The Washington fire broke out west of Sonora on Thursday, devouring 81 acres near Yosemite National Park before nightfall. Cal Fire stated the fire was showing “severe fire behavior” and that firefighters would be working into the night to put it out.
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On Tuesday, a house in Waverly, Tenn. Floods that struck the state over the weekend killed at least 20 people. Credit… The New York Times’ Brandon Dill
The floods that killed at least 20 people in Tennessee this weekend came with startling speed and intensity, and seem to be a case study in the challenges of safeguarding people from violent rainstorms as climate change worsens.
A closer look at what happened in the days, years, and even decades leading up to the storm reveals that a series of government decisions — where and how to build, when and how to update flood maps, whether to join the federal flood insurance program, and how to warn of dangerous floods — exposed residents to flooding more than they needed to be.
On Saturday, record rains of up to three inches per hour flooded rivers and streams in Middle Tennessee, demolishing houses, shutting out electricity and telephone service, and washing away bridges. 7-month-old twins, a 15-year-old girl, and an Army veteran who died after assisting his wife and daughter in escaping are among the deceased.
Given the severity of the floods, it’s difficult to tell whether any one measure might have averted those fatalities. However, interviews with climate and catastrophe experts, as well as a study of state and federal statistics, reveal how governments have been sluggish to respond to increasing risks and have failed to take measures that might have mitigated the harm.
“These severe weather events will grow more intense and frequent,” according to Hiba Baroud, a resilience expert and professor of civil and environmental engineering at Vanderbilt University in Nashville. “We need to be more proactive and consider methods to avoid or at the very least lessen the effect of these events.”
The catastrophe in Humphreys County, the state’s hardest-hit region, included the county’s reluctance to take federally subsidized flood insurance, its failure to implement residential construction standards, and federal flood maps for the area that had not been updated in over a decade.
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On Wednesday, smoke billowed from the Greenwood fire near Pitcha Lake in Isabella, Minnesota. Credit… Associated Press/Brian Peterson/Star Tribune
On Thursday, a fast-moving wildfire in northern Minnesota endangered cabins, houses, and recreational areas as hundreds of firefighters battled to put it out.
According to the US Forest Service, the Greenwood fire, which started on Aug. 15 in the Superior National Forest near the Canadian border, has burnt approximately 25,000 acres. According to officials, the fire was sparked by lightning.
Several locations, including McDougal Lake, Sand Lake, and communities along Highway 2 and north of Highway 1, are under evacuation orders. According to the Lake County Sheriff’s Office, the fire destroyed 12 main homes and 57 outbuildings earlier this week. On Wednesday, crews utilized heavy equipment to construct a fire line around the portion of the fire west of Highway 2.
According to the National Weather Service, the Greenwood fire and others in the vicinity are creating air quality issues over a large area.
“Smoke from the Greenwood fire in northeast Minnesota and fires in Ontario’s Quetico Provincial Park is currently affecting northern Wisconsin and is expected to slowly spread east-southeast today,” the National Weather Service said on Thursday, adding that children, the elderly, and people with respiratory or cardiac issues should avoid all strenuous outdoor activities in the affected area.
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Methane emissions as seen in infrared. According to scientists, greenhouse gases in the atmosphere must be reduced. Credit… The New York Times/Jonah Kessel
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The United Nations just published a significant scientific study stating that although a hotter future is certain, the most disastrous consequences may still be avoided. According to Brad Plumer, a climate writer for The New York Times, scientists agree on what has to be done to prevent global warming: nations must cease releasing greenhouse gases to the environment. Mr. Plumer, who focuses on policy and technological initiatives to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, spoke about the importance of the United Nations report, how he handles a topic that may be unpleasant to readers, and his own environmentally aware actions in an interview. This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
What are some of the questions you’d want to investigate on your beat?
Stopping further greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere, especially from fossil fuels and deforestation, is a monumental challenge that requires reconsidering many basic elements of the contemporary global economy, from the vehicles we drive to how we produce food. As a result, I’m attracted to writing about individuals attempting to find out the best paths to zero emissions, as well as the enormous structural obstacles that stand in their way.
Were you aware that a United Nations report was on the way?
For quite some time, we’ve been anticipating the release of this study. Since 1990, the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has published comprehensive evaluations of the newest research on global warming every few years, effectively synthesizing hundreds of previous studies into a unified picture. This was the sixth such evaluation, and hundreds of scientists had spent months putting it together.
We were fortunate to get our hands on a couple early versions for this report, which enabled us to figure out what was fresh and interesting. And, before the meeting, my colleague Henry Fountain and I contacted a number of experts to gain a better idea of how climate science has progressed since the I.P.C.C.’s previous major assessment in 2013. We were able to create an initial version of the narrative ahead of time because to the early preparation work. Then, three days before publication, the panel issued a final embargoed copy to reporters, we could double-check our facts to make sure we hadn’t missed anything important, and then call up additional writers for formal comment.
What is the importance of such a report?
In many respects, since the first I.P.C.C. report in 1990, the general picture on climate change hasn’t changed much. For decades, scientists have warned us that emissions from fossil fuels and deforestation may and will cause global warming, with disastrous effects.
However, there are a few significant differences today. To begin with, today’s global warming is considerably more severe than it was in the past. Countries all around the globe have increased their emissions, and the earth is now 1.1 degrees Celsius hotter than it was in the nineteenth century. As a result, many of the consequences that scientists have long predicted — more frequent heat waves, more severe droughts, ice sheets melting in Greenland and Antarctica, pushing up sea levels along coastlines — can now be observed in the present tense. This study provided the clearest picture yet of how climate change is already driving an increase in severe weather across the world.
Scientists can now predict what is likely to happen in the future with a lot greater accuracy. So there’s greater certainty that humans have effectively locked in another half-degree of global warming over the next 30 years. That adds a new dimension to humanity’s challenge: yes, we’ll have to reduce emissions if we want to keep future global warming from worsening. However, there are certain risks that are now inevitable, and we will need to adjust, such as managing forests to minimize wildfire risk or ensuring that people in cities are protected from heat waves.
What concerns does the United Nations report raise for you?
One of the report’s most striking findings is that, in order to prevent a worsening of global warming than what has already occurred, countries across the globe must virtually eliminate all fossil-fuel emissions during the next several decades. We’ll also need to find out how to remove massive amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
All of this would need a complete redesign of the global energy system at a rate unprecedented in human history. It’s mind-blowing. So, how do we go about doing that? What technologies are we going to need? What kinds of issues or dislocations could such a massive shift cause? What blunders are we likely to make along the way? Many intelligent people believe that this change is possible, but it will not be simple.
The New York Times devotes a lot of attention to climate change, yet the subject may be uncomfortable for some readers. Is this anything you consider while reporting and writing these articles?
We give it a lot of thought. When experts warn that global warming will cause genuine risks and difficulties across the globe, I don’t believe we should be afraid to convey it as clearly as possible, even if it is frightening or depressing. It’s difficult to deal with a problem like climate change until we have a clear picture of the situation.
But the climate narrative is much more complicated than just doom and gloom. We write about individuals and towns coming up with innovative ways to protect themselves from severe weather on The Times’ Climate desk and elsewhere. We discuss how climate change interacts with current socioeconomic disparities, as well as possible solutions. We cover innovators and companies that are experimenting with new ways to reduce pollution. We discuss how climate change is reshaping politics in our articles. We write about how people grapple with their visceral reactions to climate change.
Climate change, as well as attempts to reduce emissions and mitigate damage, will be a fundamental reality of existence for decades to come, affecting so many areas of contemporary life. Some of the tales may be depressing, while others will be upbeat. The key is to attempt to represent that reality in all of its chaotic complexity as best we can.
Have you altered your behavior as a result of reading this report or prior reports?
Individual attempts to reduce emissions are admirable, but most people’s options are limited by the world around them. So, for example, I mainly walk, bike, or use the bus to go about every day, but it’s simple for me since I live in a walkable area in Washington with convenient public transportation. The majority of individuals in the United States don’t have the option since most cities aren’t designed that way. Finding methods to change our built environment so that more people have alternatives to driving would go a long way toward reducing driving when individuals don’t have much of a choice.
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According to research, one thing the Federal Reserve can do to assist combat climate change is to succeed at its core job: keeping the economy healthy. Credit… The New York Times’ Lexey Swall
The climate catastrophe is on the verge of escalating into a financial disaster.
Leading economists are increasingly convinced that a warming world and humanity’s attempts to address it will result in a slew of economic and financial issues. But, if you accept that, what should the US president’s top economist do about it?
President Biden is debating whether to re-appoint Jerome Powell to another term as chairman of the Federal Reserve or choose someone else.
Climate activists and others on the left have urged that Mr. Powell should be replaced with a climate hawk with more experience. Demonstrators supporting this cause planned to protest at an annual Fed symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo., beginning Thursday, but the event was abruptly changed to an online-only event due to an increase in coronavirus infections. They want the Fed to utilize its regulatory authority to limit bank financing to carbon-producing sectors, among other things.
At the same time, some Republicans are criticizing the Fed for just doing climate research. If a new Fed chair took an active posture in attempting to restrict the availability of financing in energy-extraction companies, there would undoubtedly be a tremendous backlash from the right.
Mr. Powell and other central bank chiefs have so far chosen a moderate position. They’ve agreed to research how global warming will impact the economy and financial system, and they’ll incorporate their findings into their regular duties of directing the economy and regulating banks — but not managing how loans and resources are distributed.
One of the most essential things the Fed can do to aid in the battle against climate change is to succeed at its core job: keeping the economy stable and robust. Take a look at some unexpected public opinion statistics.
Gallup has been polling Americans since 1989 to see whether they are concerned about climate change. The net proportion of individuals who are concerned about climate change — those who are concerned a “fair bit” or “a great deal” against those who are concerned “just a little” or “not at all” — gives an indication of how seriously Americans regard the issue.
The net proportion of individuals concerned about climate change peaked not in recent years, when the negative consequences became more apparent. In April 2000, the proportion of individuals concerned about the environment was 45 percentage points greater than the proportion who were not. That was also one of the greatest months for the US economy in decades, with unemployment at only 3.8 percent, near the height of the late 1990s boom.
In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, in 2010 and 2011, the net shares of those concerned against those who were not worried were just four and three percentage points, respectively, in the poll.
Lyle Scruggs and Salil Benegal, two political scientists at the University of Connecticut, used a broader range of evidence from both the United States and Europe to find that a decline in climate concern during that time period was largely driven by worsening economic conditions, which increased worry about more immediate issues. People tend to think less of programs with long-term payoffs in times of shortage.
Professor Scruggs said that the condition of the economy influences people’s attention to the future versus the present. “Historically, climate change has been lumped in with a number of other environmental problems, with people’s responses fluctuating with the economy.”
This study indicates that if a central bank can produce continuous prosperity, it may alter certain political dynamics around strong climate action. Prosperity may aid government branches that are more explicitly responsible for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, expanding renewable energy capacity, or assisting populations in adapting to more severe weather.
Not everyone who analyzes climate change public opinion agrees.
The decrease in concern about climate change in the early 2010s, according to Anthony Leiserowitz, director of the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, was due to increasing political division and a shift of conservative media toward climate change denialism, not to the poor economy.
He described what he viewed as a “symbiotic relationship” between conservative media, conservative political leaders, and the conservative people. “That was the catalyst for the change. It wasn’t because of the economy.”
Michael T. Kiley, a Fed staff member, released a study last summer that looked at how temperature changes influence economic performance. Climate change, it found, may not affect the economy’s normal pace of growth over time, but it may make severe recessions more frequent. For example, a significant agricultural failure would reduce G.D.P. directly while also causing economic ripple effects such as bank failures.
And Lael Brainard, a Fed governor and a possible Biden nominee for the next chair, has said that the unpredictability of climate change may render historical models of economic policy outdated.
In a March address, she stated, “Unlike episodic or transitory shocks, climate change is a continuous, cumulative process that is anticipated to generate a succession of shocks.” “These shocks may alter the statistical time-series characteristics of economic variables over time, making historical forecasting more complex and less reliable.”
If Ms. Brainard is right, it presents a depressing possibility: as the globe warms, it may become more difficult to maintain the economy on a steady course. However, if the economy deteriorates, climate politics may become more poisonous and dysfunctional.
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